The Backlog Was Always There
For years, companies wanted software they couldn't afford to build. That backlog is about to open. Not everyone gets to work on it.
Is AI killing software jobs? Probably the wrong framing.
Most companies want software they don’t have. Not because they chose spreadsheets and manual processes. Because building software was expensive, slow, and required talent they couldn’t find. The CIO who wants to automate fifteen internal workflows isn’t waiting by choice. They’re waiting because they can’t get it done.
AI changes that. Work that needed a team of eight needs two people. Six months becomes six weeks. That unlocks a backlog of building that was always wanted and never started.
So the people saying AI creates more software jobs have a point. Demand for software has always outrun supply. That doesn’t go away - it finally gets addressed.
The catch is that the engineers who capture that demand aren’t average engineers. They’re the ones who think in systems, write clean specs, and know when the output is wrong even when it looks right. Maybe 10% of the current workforce. Probably less.
So you get a split. The top tier gets more valuable - more leverage, more output, more demand than ever. Everyone below that line becomes, quietly, optional. Not fired on Tuesday. Just not hired next year.
The CIO sees a flood of projects they can finally build. They need people to run them. More demand, not less.
The mid-level developer sees their daily work getting absorbed by tools they don’t fully control. Their output looks the same. Their footing isn’t.
Both are looking at the same thing.
Nobody knows yet what the expert engineer in an agent world actually looks like. Not the companies hiring for it. Not the engineers trying to become it. What seems clear is that the people who land well are the ones who can hold the whole picture - who understand what needs to be built, why, and whether what came out is actually right.
Judgment. Clarity. Taste.
Every AI consultant has put those three words on a slide. Usually as reassurance. But they were always the scarce things - and scarcity compounds.
The engineers who had them before any of this started are about to find out just how much they’re worth.
🙏
Be kind,
Manuel